Q: Given its current run, do you see a correction coming?
A: "Recoil" screams The Economist. BusinessWeek shows a gas gauge near empty with the headline "Oil & The Economy." Even the latest National Geographic has an oil story listed on the cover... although Stonehenge made the lead. All this press would lead a lot of analysts to expect a top in oil... but I'm not so sure.
I've heard a lot about the lack of new large oil finds and rising demand from the developing world, but here more factors you rarely hear about that are driving prices higher: Soaring demand fueled by price supports: Indonesia, for example, is a longstanding member of OPEC but will withdraw from the cartel at the end of the year. The country's production declined and its demand grew, so now it has to import oil. Indonesia long held the record for the cheapest oil and gasoline in Asia, thanks to government subsidies. That fueled high demand, which could cripple the country as it switches from net oil producer to net consumer.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
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